“Predictive Evaluation” author Dave Basarab speaks at Book Club SIG by Michelle Albert

03 Apr 2012 9:04 PM | Anonymous member

Dave Basarab presented his book “Predictive Evaluation” at the March Chapter meeting and the Book Club SIG discussed it on March 29th at Barnes and Noble, with Dave participating via conference call.


Dave presented the “PE” model in a very open and interactive style at the Chapter Meeting. The PE model is based on using the model as a leading indicator, to predict the adoption success rate in advance of starting a training program---what a concept!


The PE model has two main components: Predicting and Evaluating and it provides data for executives, including:

  1. predicting areas of success in 3 areas: Intention, Adoption and Impact, and Measuring to see if success was achieved.
  2. leading indicators of future adoption, i.e. Transfer of Learning and Impact
  3. making recommendations for continued improvement

If leading indicators are below what was predicted, actions can be taken “to right the ship”.


The book defines the variables Intention, Adoption, and Impact in great detail. Intention addresses the question: “Are participant goals and beliefs upon course completion aligned with desired goals?” The text provides the steps to follow in order to conduct a successful Intention Evaluation.


Adoption addresses the question: How much of the training has been implemented on the job and successfully integrated into the participants work behavior.  An Adoption Evaluation measures participant goal completion rate against the defined Adoption Rate created when training value is predicted, transferring goals to the workplace. Results are analyzed and reports produced as needed. The steps are outlined in detail in the text to conduct successful Adoption Evaluation.


Impact evaluation identifies the impact the value of training has for the organization that can be traced to training. Assessment is quantified by the adoptive behavior that has made a measurable difference. The steps are expanded fully in the book to calculate successful Impact Evaluation.


The model is designed to predict the success of skills-based rather than knowledge-based training. It is also designed to monitor ongoing repeatable training programs in order to measure continuous improvement. Most importantly, it is designed for learning organizations that are open to examining their progress further by looking within in order to improve processes to achieve more favorable results that can be traced to training specifically.


I have discovered that to start with the last chapter of the book, chapter 6, is extremely useful. It explains how to start using the PE model successfully. It recommends the plan of action and the questions to ask before starting. Questions such as “Who are the key stakeholders? Who should receive the evaluation reports? What resources are available? What existing practices are in place? What funding is available?” and the “Timing” may prove crucial to your plan. These questions help to assess the purpose of the evaluation and what is prompting it. A plan of action is the key to the success of the PE plan. Action steps such as Deciding on the Questions that the PE should answer, and Creating a list of information that the PE needs to deliver followed by a list of tasks to execute for each deliverable identified, may prove critical. Subsequently, after asking the questions, perform the PE using the PE Sequence as shown in the book.


To summarize, as Dave inscribed in my book: “Predict and Evaluate to drive great results.” The PE Model is worth exploring prior to making the training investment, to illustrate to the organization stakeholders in a comprehensive manner the value and impact attributable to training.


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